๐ŸŒพ Herd growth vs. expected weight-for-age

Expected weight corridor (ยฑ10%) for this herd's own baseline, with normal cows tracking inside it and four flagged animals shown against it โ€” 2026-09-05

expected corridor (ยฑ10%) expected mean control anomaly

Fresian vs. same-age control: 16โ€“28 months

Feather, Chalky, and River (controls) track the expected corridor normally. Fresian sits below it throughout this window, ~9-11% under expected.

150 200 300 400 16mo 20mo 24mo 28mo Feather 360kg Chalky 260kg River 357kg Fresian 295kg

Suspected cause: the gap has been consistent since early in life rather than a recent onset, which points more toward a chronic issue โ€” internal parasites (worm burden) or persistent competition for feed within the herd โ€” rather than a sudden illness. Not confirmed; worth a faecal egg count and a look at her position in the feeding order.

Tulip vs. same-age control: 16โ€“28 months

Feather, Chalky, and River (controls) track the expected corridor normally. Tulip is currently 315kg at 27.1 months, ~11% below expected โ€” a genuine concern worth a vet/condition check.

150 200 300 400 16mo 20mo 24mo 28mo Feather 360kg Chalky 260kg River 357kg Tulip 315kg

Suspected cause: unlike Fresian, Tulip's shortfall follows a peak and decline rather than a lifelong gap โ€” pointing more toward something that started recently, at around two years old. Dental discomfort during permanent-tooth eruption (common at this age) or a developing parasite burden are the likelier explanations over a chronic issue. Not confirmed; worth a mouth check alongside a worm count.

Spots vs. a same-age control: 7โ€“19 months

Chalky (19.1 months) tracks the expected corridor normally at 260kg. Spots (18.7 months, nearly the same age) tracked only modestly above Chalky through month 17 (286kg), then jumped +63kg in a single month to 349kg โ€” far outside her own decelerating growth pattern. Reads as a sensor or recording error more than a real growth spurt.

100 200 300 7mo 10mo 13mo 16mo 19mo Chalky 260kg Spots 349kg

Suspected data-entry error: extrapolating Spots' own decelerating trend puts her true current weight closer to ~304.9kg โ€” plausibly mis-keyed as 349kg (a dropped tens-place digit). Treat 349kg as unconfirmed until re-weighed.

Bug vs. same-age control: 70โ€“105 months

Twilight sits comfortably inside the mature plateau (~415kg ยฑ10%). Bug held steady there too until peaking at 413kg in Aug 2025, then declined 53kg to 360kg โ€” well below the corridor floor.

300 350 400 450 70mo 80mo 90mo 100mo Twilight 434kg Bug 360kg

Suspected cause: at 8+ years old with a clean peak-then-decline shape, this is the classic profile for dental wear โ€” an older cow losing the ability to graze and chew effectively, rather than sudden illness. Age-related organ decline or a chronic condition are also possible. Not confirmed; worth a dental/mouth exam before assuming it's diet or parasites.

Deviation from expected weight-for-age

AnimalAgeActualExpected (corridor mean)DeviationRead
Feather23.3mo360kg~331kg+8.8%Normal โ€” upper edge of corridor
Chalky19.1mo260kg~276kgโˆ’5.6%Normal
River36.0mo357kg~382kgโˆ’6.5%Normal
Twilight101.3mo434kg~415kg+4.6%Normal, mature plateau
Fresian22.9mo295kg~326kgโˆ’9.5%Light for age, watch
Tulip27.1mo315kg~353kgโˆ’10.8%Underweight for age โ€” flag for vet check
Bug99.1mo360kg~415kgโˆ’13.3%Was stable, now declining
Spots18.7mo349kg~270kg+29%Anomalous jump โ€” check sensor